Plastic futures: plastic medium-term correction or near end
Plastic futures: plastic medium-term correction or near end
Recently, the price of plastic period has fallen from the high level, which is mainly reflected by the restarting and expanding of the joint plant in fujian and the technical pressure. Now, negative have been made, considering the device to restart cannot alter Change of supply and demand pattern, afternoon tight supply situation will continue, and gradually increasing demand, traders and downstream first stock and bullish factors such as cost support support, plastic futures regain their upward trend of probability is bigger, the Spring Festival before the above target is still for 11500 yuan/ton. First, the rebooting of the device has been reflected in the expected price correction. Fujian 800000 tons of joint processing PE will restart this week and productive capacity of 100000 tons, the period since December 10, now the price of highs has been reflected, although there are technical pressure and the influence of negative factors such as spot market prices, but it is also expected to the set of device to restart a reflection of the negative influence, so once the fujian joint device begins to restart, negative influence is the basic, difficult to continue to weigh on plastic futures. Second, downstream demand will continue to grow. November agricultural production stability, mainly films production compared with the golden nine silver ten season gradually retreated, but film reserves production gradually expand, for the afternoon, as plastic production continues to heat up, shed film production to maintain, December and January will continue to increase production in a single day. In addition, packaging film, for the Spring Festival approaching, packaging film consumption season also gradually approaching, this will stimulate the growth of the packaging film production, and the current packaging film machine has been recovered, currently 71%, market outlook will continue to ascend. Taken together, plastic consumption will continue to grow over the years and will provide a strong support for the 1405 contract. Third, the growth of PE import in the aftermarket is still limited. Affected by continuous peripheral device maintenance, PE in our country, import growth has fallen for 3 months as of October to 9%, and Shanghai to the port of PE decreased trend has not changed, it also can be seen that the weakness of PE import in China. Peripheral device overhaul continues and years ago, although affected by seasonal demand domestic season, imports or have rebounded, but supply is tight, the Middle East supply restricted imports of continuing losses and other factors, afternoon imports growth will be limited, to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic. In addition, cost support will remain. The prices of brent, naphtha and vinyl have been high and low in determining the cost of plastic production. For cloth crude oil prices, Libya's geopolitical crisis is still not eliminated, the doe several times to increase crude oil exports have become the bubble, the open port years ago is unlikely, coupled with the Saudi oil production and support global crude seasonal shopping season, years ago, the crude oil futures fell hard, truncated to December 16, plastic production cost is about 10860 yuan/ton, afternoon continue to maintain a high probability; In addition, the recent ethylene prices continued strength in northeast China, is mainly due to the ethylene supplies in northeast China, and in the first half of next year is expected to more than Japan, Taiwan and cracking unit overhaul, the industry is still bullish on afternoon ethylene prices, it also will continue to bring support to afternoon plastic futures. Although since mid-december, plastic period now prices are high, but the futures price declines significantly larger than the spot, so that the futures premium spot range expanded to 915 yuan/ton, very close to the historical maximum discount rate, continue to expand the space is very limited, and under the PE surface remains tight pattern of supply and demand, petrochemical and inventory pressure, spot prices fell by limited, believe investors choose the varieties of deeper put water to do will be very cautious when empty, shorting underpowered, deeper discount will therefore to plastic futures.
